台灣智庫政策研究系列 37《習近平時代的統治思維：對台工作與兩岸融合》

｜作　　者｜吳瑟致、王占璽、王國臣、王啟逡、馬準威、

林穎佑、林竣達、葉聖平、蕭督圜

｜發 行 人｜吳榮義

｜總 編 輯｜呂曜志

｜執行編輯｜吳瑟致

｜行政編輯｜高家楨

｜編輯助理｜吳柏融

｜出　　版｜財團法人台灣智庫

｜編排印製｜秀威資訊科技股份有限公司

出版日期：2024年11月

ISBN：978-626-98534-4-1

定價：100元 洽購專線：(02)2370-6987

From the Editor in Chief

In October 2022, China entered the era of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), marking Xi Jinping’s third term. He became the first CPC leader to serve three consecutive terms since the reform and opening-up era. Within the 20th Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC, Xi continued to exert control over party, government, and military power. China’s party-state system with “Xi as the core” reflects a different power distribution within the CPC compared to the past. Understanding the changes in China’s political development involves observing Xi’s approach to consolidating his power, the issues and changes arising from the possibility of Xi serving indefinitely, and analyzing Xi’s model of governance.

In response to these developments, the Taiwan Thinktank established the China Issues Research Center in 2023. The center invited scholars and experts from relevant fields to collectively delve into the “Chinese factors under Xi’s rule,” aiming to objectively, accurately, and freshly understand China. For Taiwan, facing the threat from China, the risks and challenges of “Xi’s totalitarianism” cannot be ignored. Domestic scholars and experts were invited to focus on “The Rationale of Rule in Xi’s Era,” discussing three aspects: legal and political, socio-economic, diplomatic and defense. They analyze the governance characteristics of Xi’s comprehensive authority.

In 2024, we have published three series of “Governance Ideology in the Xi Jinping Era.” However, to analyze the CCP’s policy of Taiwan and cross-strait during the Xi’s third term is very important, therefore, we decided to add publishing the fourth volume and focusing on “Taiwan Affairs and Cross-Strait Integration.” It invites nine young scholars, including Assistant Researcher Guo-Chen Wang from Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research The First Research Division, Assistant Professor Jyun-Da Lin from the National Taiwan University Graduate Institute of National Development, Assistant Professor Se-Chih Wu from the General Education Center at Taipei University of Marine Technology, Associate Researcher Chan-Hsi Wang from Division of National Security Research at Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Assistant Professor Ying-Yu Lin from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, Assistant Professor Chun-Wei Ma from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, Assistant Professor Du-Yuan Siao from the Department of Political Science at Chinese Culture University, Lecturer Ci-Cyun Wang from the General Education Center at Taipei University of Marine Technology, Ph.D. student Sheng-Ping Yeh from National Development and Mainland China Institute at Chinese Culture University.Each scholar addresses aspects such as politics, economics, society, military, diplomacy and the Taiwan Strait situation, these discussions serve as the theoretical basis for analyzing Xi’s policy of Taiwan policy and cross-strait strategy.

President, Dr. Liu Yau Jr 

總編輯的話

2022年10月，中國進入中共二十大時期，中共總書記習近平破例邁入第三任期，這是改革開放以來首位連續三任期的中共領導人，從中共政治局常委的組成來看，習近平全面掌握黨政軍「三位一體」權力，以「習近平為核心」的黨政體制，這和過去中共權力分配完全不同，極權統治模式有典範轉移的跡象。掌握中國政治發展的變化，必須觀察習近平如何鞏固政權地位，習近平可能終身延任所衍生的問題與變化，以及「習近平統治模式」是什麼？值得深入探討。

台灣智庫在2023年成立中國問題研究中心，邀請相關領域的學者專家共同研討「習近平統治下的中國因素」，客觀的、正確的、重新的「認識中國」，這對面臨中國威脅的台灣來說，「極權主義的習近平政權」是具風險及挑戰，且是無法迴避的問題。台灣智庫集結國內學者專家，聚焦在「習近平時代的統治思維」的主軸上，分成法制政治、社會經濟、外交國防等三個面向，分析習近平全面掌權下的統治特性，以專書出版的方式呈現，提供各界參考及貢獻。

本書是「習近平時代的統治思維」系列的特輯專題，原訂出版三冊，由於習近平邁入第三任期，有必要系統性探討中共對台政策及兩岸關係，因此本系列增加第四冊，主題是「對台工作與兩岸融合」，邀請國防安全研究院國家安全研究所王占璽副研究員、中華經濟研究院第一所王國臣助研究員、淡江大學戰略所馬準威助理教授及林穎佑助理教授、台灣大學國家發展研究所林竣達助理教授、台北海洋科技大學通識教育中心吳瑟致助理教授、中國文化大學政治學系蕭督圜助理教授、台北海洋科技大學通識教育中心王啟逡講師及中國文化大學國家發展與中國大陸研究所博士生葉聖平等九位年輕學者，分別就政治、經濟、社會、軍事、外交及台海情勢等面向進行討論，以作為習近平對台政策及兩岸思維的學理分析基礎。

目　次

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From the Editor in Chief／Liu Yau Jr                                005

總編輯的話／呂曜志                                                           008

導論：習近平的對台政策與兩岸思維／吳瑟致                    013

中共涉台政策的外部因素考量與戰略作為／馬準威           016

習近平時期對台的融合發展政策評析／蕭督圜、葉聖平  023

習近平時期中共對台經濟作為／王國臣                             029

習近平政府對台商的戰略／林竣達                                     037

近期解放軍對台軍演的變化與特色／林穎佑                      044

習近平第三任期下的對台法律戰攻勢與目的／王啟逡      051

習近平對台政策的內在邏輯／王占璽                                  057