｜作 者｜吳瑟致、吳柏融、王文岳、林筱甄、林威志、
林展暉、陳方隅、趙文志、龔祥生
｜發 行 人｜吳榮義
｜總 編 輯｜呂曜志
｜執行編輯｜吳瑟致
｜行政編輯｜高家楨
｜編輯助理｜吳柏融
｜出 版｜財團法人台灣智庫
｜編排印製｜秀威資訊科技股份有限公司
出版日期：2025年1月
ISBN：978-626-98534-6-5
定價：100元 洽購專線：(02)2370-6987
From the Editor in Chief
The 2024 U.S. presidential election has successfully concluded, and Mr. Donald Trump has returned to the White House. After his first term in office, the presidency was handed over to the Democratic Biden administration in 2020. Now, Trumpism has gained significant political momentum domestically and is poised to reshape many aspects of international politics. Observers are closely watching as Trump officially takes office on January 20, 2025, with his slogan “Make America Great Again” likely becoming the mainstream agenda for the nation, pursued with even greater vigor.
With Trump’s second term, not only will he hold executive power, but the Republican Party also secured a majority in both houses of Congress, solidifying what many are calling the “Trump 2.0.”
Mr. Trump is likely to focus on several key policy areas moving forward, including implementing new immigration restrictions, using tariff policies and protectionism to achieve other policy goals, and reshaping the priorities of U.S. foreign policy—particularly by urging traditional allies to take on greater responsibilities. For Taiwan, this presents both potential challenges and strategic opportunities that require careful analysis, particularly regarding the implications of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and its potential impact on cross-strait dynamics.
The Taiwan Thinktank have long focused on developments in Taiwan’s geopolitical and international landscape, including areas such as geopolitics, global security, cross-strait relations, Chinese affairs, and international trade. And now we would like to face new challenges and opportunities. We decided to add publishing the volume and focusing on “Trump’s Return to the White House: Implications for the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Cross-Strait Relations.” This book invites nine young scholars, including Professor Wen-Chin Chao from the Institute of Strategic and International Affairs at National Chung Cheng University; Associate Professor James W. Y. Wang from the Department of Southeast Asian Studies at National Chi Nan University; Associate Research Fellow Xiang-Sheng Gong from the PLA and Operations Concepts Research Division at Institute for National Defense and Security Research; Assistant Professor Hsiao-Chen Lin from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University; Assistant Professor Fang-Yu Chen from the Department of Political Science at Soochow University; Assistant Professor Se-Chih Wu from the General Education Center at Taipei University of Marine Technology; Assistant Professor Wei-Chih Lin from the General Education Center at Taipei University of Marine Technology; Assistant Professor Zhan-Hui Lin from the Center for General Education at Feng Chia University, and Po-Jung Wu, a master’s student from the Department of Political Science at Soochow University.
Each scholar addresses one issue area and its future development under the Trump 2.0 administration. The issues include the Indo-Pacific strategy, cross-strait relations, South Asia, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, U.S.-China trade relations, and China’s external environment. We expect that these discussions can serve as the theoretical basis for analyzing and engagement among academia, policymakers, media, and industry professionals.
President, Dr. Liu Yau Jr
總編輯的話
2024年美國總統大選結果，共和黨的候選人川普（Donald Trump）贏得選舉，這是他繼2016年首次當選、2020年競逐連任失敗後順利重返白宮，「川普主義」（Trumpism）再度在美國國內復燃，同時也將再席捲全球，外界都在關注川普在2025年1月20日正式上任後，「讓美國再次偉大」（Make America Great Again, MAGA）會是美國國家主流路線，且會更積極推動，畢竟川普的第二任期，不只掌握了行政權，共和黨在國會兩院也取得席次優勢，「川普2.0」已是隱然成形。
台灣智庫長期關注台灣與國際形勢的發展，包括地緣政治、全球安全、兩岸關係、中國問題、國際經貿等，都是台灣智庫一直以來研析的重要議題，不只是一個公共政策平台，更邀請各領域的學者專家共同研討、打造跨領域的公共知識場域。川普再度當選，成為美國第47任總統，他將帶來全新的政治議程，包括新的外來移民限制、用「關稅」來作與他國談判的政策手段、想辦法把製造業帶回美國，以及「美國優先」（America First）的全新外交途徑、重塑美國對外政策，這對台灣來說是機會、是挑戰，更必須研擬的課題，特別是美國「印太戰略」（Indo-Pacific Strategy）意涵及可能對兩岸情勢帶來的影響。
本書的主題是「川普重返白宮後的印太戰略及兩岸情勢」，邀請中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所趙文志教授、暨南國際大學東南亞學系王文岳副教授、國防安全研究院中共政軍與作戰概念研究所龔祥生副研究員、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所林筱甄助理教授、東吳大學政治學系陳方隅助理教授、台北海洋科技大學通識教育中心吳瑟致助理教授及林威志助理教授、逢甲大學通識教育中心林展暉兼任助理教授及東吳大學政治學系碩士研究生吳柏融等九位年輕學者，以川普再次擔任美國總統為題，分別就印太、兩岸、南亞、東北亞、東南亞、美中台關係、美中經貿關係及中國外部形勢等面向進行分析，希冀與時俱進分享產官學界參考及激盪。
目 次
From the Editor in Chief／Liu Yau Jr 005
總編輯的話／呂曜志 008
川普再任美國總統對印太區域影響之初探／吳瑟致 013
川普重返白宮後的美中關係下兩岸情勢可能發展／趙文志 016
川普的印太新局：金磚崛起下的全球供應鏈重塑／林筱甄 022
川普重返白宮後的美中台關係／陳方隅 028
川普重返白宮後美國對中經貿戰略／林展暉 035
美日大選後東北亞安全局勢展望／龔祥生 040
川普重返白宮後的美國東南亞關係／王文岳 047
川普對外戰略及中國可能的因應策略分析／林威志、吳柏融 055